globe retail outlook data


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The Central Statistical Office of Poland initially announced that the country's GDP grew at the rate of 4.3% Y-o-Y at the end of the fourth quarter of 2017 when compared to 2.8% Y-o-Y at the end of 2016. A general improvement of the labour and investment markets, along with excellent condition of real estate market generated positive market sentiment. The unemployment rate dropped by 1.6 pp on annual basis and reached 6.6% at the end of 2017. Drop in unemployment rates has been continued and recorded at 5.9% in July 2018. Average monthly gross wage and salary in enterprise sector has increased by 5.9% Y-o-Y in December 2017.

Excellent condition of a real estate market in Poland has been reflected in the investment market, which remains the standout performer across the CEE region with over EUR 5.0 billion transacted in 2017 with the growth of investors activity by 11% in comparison to 2016 and equating to the highest volume since the peak in 2006. It is worth mentioning that more than 55% of volume was transferred in portfolio deals, keeping the market in line with major European trends. In 2017 the main pan-European portfolio deals, which also involved Poland, were the sale of P3 (EUR 2.3 billion) to Singapore fund – GIC, the purchase of Logicor (EUR 12.3 billion) by CIC and the acquisition of Triuva by Patrizia. Furthermore, the largest portfolio transactions in Poland include the acquisition of Griffin Premium RE by Globalworth RE, the sale of an IKEA Retail Portfolio to Pradera and the purchase of the Fashion House Portfolio by DAWM. The retail sector in 2017 accounted for 43% of the total volume, followed by office (31%), industrial sector (19%) and other deals (7%). In terms of retail market, the total investment volume in this sector stood at the level of EUR 2.15 billion. Nevertheless, the business environment is clearly changing and transactions are now taking much longer to complete but we are still seeing strong investor demand for high-quality core retail products. Apart from the portfolio transactions, such as IKEA or Fashion House, the most significant single deals were the acquisition of Magnolia in Wroclaw, purchase of Galeria Sloneczna in Radom and disposal of Alfa Bialystok.

In H1 2018 investment activity across the retail sector was dominated by the greatest transaction in the history of the Polish market – the acquisition of 28 shopping centres by Griffin RE from funds managed by ARES, AXA and Apollo Rida. The total GLA of the portfolio exceeded 700,000 sq m with the possibility of expansion by a further 56,000 sq m. Furthermore, several malls were quickly disposed of to EPP and the next few properties will be acquired by the end of 2020.

Robust demand for retail assets has exerted downward pressure on yields and prime retail assets were valued at yields little above 5.0% at the end of H1 2018.

For the new retailers entering the Polish market with the policy to locate their stores in one of the prestigious locations, the number of options is limited. In terms of available space in modern shopping centres, vacancy rate level in general amounted to 3.2% in H1 2018, however, it varied depending on the shopping centre category and age.

At the end of H1 2018, the total shopping centre stock in Poland amounted to over 11.7 million sq m of GLA located in around 510 schemes. Around 56% of the stock was located within the largest agglomerations, however, small cities are also well provisioned with the retail offer. Over 540,000 sq m of new retail space was under construction, most of them scheduled to be completed within around 2 years. The shopping centre density for Poland at the end of H1 2018 amounted to 310 sq m of GLA/ 1,000 inhabitants, leaving development potential for new investments.

Our Top Tip For
New Arrivals

The best retail locations in Poland are to be found in the 8 biggest agglomerations: Warsaw, Krakow, Lodz, Wroclaw, Poznan, Katowice, Tri City and Szczecin.

Do not be resistant when medium size cities are concerned unattractive – the retail market there is developing rapidly.

Investing in existing malls (especially older than 10 years) that need renovation and introduction of new solutions, may be a good idea. They usually have well-established retail position and very good location. A developer needs to be increasingly selective in order to hit the market with the right type of product. In many locations tenant demand remains unsatisfied, as the existing retail offer does not match their requirements.


Polish Zloty (PLN)
EUR €0.23
USD $0.27
GBP £0.21


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