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The Central Statistical Office of Poland announced that the country's GDP grew at the rate of 2.8% Y-o-Y at the end of the fourth quarter of 2016. Throughout the 2016 Polish GDP increased in real terms by 3.8%. A general improvement of the labor and investment markets, along with excellent condition of real estate market generated positive market sentiment. The unemployment rate dropped by 1.4% on annual basis and average monthly gross wage and salary in enterprise sector has increased by 2.7% Y-o-Y in December 2016.

Excellent condition of a real estate market in Poland has its reflected in the investment market, which remains the standout performer across the CEE region with over EUR 4.5 billion transacted in 2016 with the growth of investors activity by 12% in comparison to 2015. Across sectors, the market was dominated by a number of very large transactions including stand-alone assets and portfolio transactions. The largest transaction of the year was the corporate transaction with Redefine acquiring a substantial stake in the Lewandowski Portfolio.The retail sector in 2016 accounted for 43% of the total volume, followed by office (40%) and industrial sector (17%). In terms of retail market, the total investment volume in this sector stood at the level of EUR 1.9 billion. Nevertheless, the business environment is clearly changing and transactions are now taking much longer to complete but we are still seeing strong investor demand for high-quality core retail products. Demand is broadly broken down into two categories, prime city centre retail assets that continue to achieve the best yields and suburban, hypermarket-anchored galleries, where yield levels are already easing. Key transactions conducted in 2016 such as Bonarka Shopping Center, Galeria Warminska, Focus Mall Zielona Gora & Piotrkow Trybunalski, Factory Outlet Wroclaw & Poznan, CH Jantar in Slupsk, Ferio Konin in Konin or CH Krokus in Cracow confirm this trend.

Prime yields in all sectors have compressed to record level. Prime office yields in Warsaw were estimated at the level of 5.35%, whereas prime office yields in regional cities are estimated at 6.25%. Prime yields for shopping centers were compressed to 5.25% and prime yields for industrial properties remain stable.

For the new retailers entering the Polish market with the policy to locate their stores in one of the prestigious locations, the number of options is limited. In terms of available space in modern shopping centres, vacancy rate level in general amounts to 3.5%, however, it varies depending on the shopping centre category and age.

At the end of Q4 2016, the total shopping centre stock in Poland amounted to 11,3 million sq m of GLA located in nearly 500 schemes. Around 55% of the stock is located within the largest agglomerations, however, small cities are also well provisioned with the retail offer. Over 0,54 million sq m of new retail space is under construction, most of them scheduled to be completed within around 2 years. The shopping centre density for Poland at the end of 2016 amounted to 293 sq m of GLA / 1,000 inhabitants, leaving development potential for new investments.

Our Top Tip For
New Arrivals

The best retail locations in Poland are to be found in the 8 biggest agglomerations: Warsaw, Kraków, Lodz, Wroclaw, Poznan, Katowice, Tricity and Szczecin. 
Do not be resistant when medium size cities are concerned unattractive - the retail market there is developing rapidly.
Investing in existing malls (especially older than 10 years) that need renovation and introduction of new solutions, may be a good idea. They usually have well-established retail position and very good location. A developer needs to be increasingly selective in order to hit the market with the right type of product. In many locations tenant demand remains unsatisfied, as the existing retail offer does not match their requirements.


Polish Zloty (PLN)
EUR €0.24
USD $0.29
GBP £0.21


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